And so it begins.
The second impeachment trial of Former President Donald J. Trump begins today. The first order of business will be arguments and a vote on the constitutionality of the trial itself, taking place as it does after the exit of the subject of the proceedings. The Constitution doesn’t prevent this, but you may be hard pressed to realize this after arguments are heard. By the time you read this, that vote will have been taken.
No one knows what will happen after that, assuming the trial continues. Speculation is rampant. It is widely reported that since a two thirds majority must vote to convict, 17 Republicans will have to break ranks to find the President guilty of incitement to insurrection. In the current hyper-partisan atmosphere of American politics that seems like an impossibility, a bridge too far to imagine. Five, seven, even ten might be possible, but that seems a stretch and won’t get the job done.
Currently in Arizona there is an attempt to find the electoral administrators in that state in contempt and to criminalize their certification of the votes there, arrest them and reverse the results, therefore overturning the election. The rabid right wing controls the state legislature in that state and may have the votes for this outrageous usurpation of voter rights. With this kind of underlying voter base, to find senators with the courage to say “no” to their own supporters and “yes” to impeachment is highly unlikely.
But another trend has established itself and that is people retiring from the Senate, the latest of which is (R) Richard Shelby of Alabama. The timing of Shelby’s announcement, coming days before the trial begins, leads me to wonder if he is freeing himself to vote his conscience. Former Trump sycophant Mitch McConnell has already suggested that he would “…listen to the evidence…” and has indicated he may be leaning toward impeachment and with him providing cover I can’t help but wonder if Shelby is positioning himself to go out with honor. How many others might be empowered by these two, if in fact they are actually trying to rescue the Grand Ole Party? Shelby holds some weight, and McConnell surely does. Could they put enough pressure on colleagues to try to rescue the party from the populist overthrow being attempted?
And yet another possibility exists. When the moment becomes too great for small men, will they simply not show up? The two thirds majority seems daunting, until you realize all that is required is two thirds of those “present” to vote to convict. Is it possible that a large swath of Republicans will simply stay home and avoid the vote altogether, dodging the responsibility to put their name to any position at all? By staying home, they would not be seen as chastising their base while not being guilty of exonerating a grotesque criminal. They would have a path to plausible deniability of any culpability and the reasons for their absence would be fodder for late night television and political satirists for weeks. Have no fear, Randy Rainbow, you ain’t done yet!
The great Heather Cox Richardson seems invested in this last possibility. If you aren’t following her daily commentary on current political affairs you are missing a treat. Combining accuracy and an unemotional approach with a deep appreciation of historical context, this is civics for grown-ups. I see her as a daily must-read, but I think she uncharacteristically is allowing herself to have a long-shot hope I simply don’t share.
The best case scenario that I see coming from this trial is enough crossover to send a message to the rest of the party that the big business Republicans are not going to roll over to the populist Republicans. If there are enough of them, it sets up the showdown power struggle for the party itself, and if it can’t be resolved it will result in their split. The Romney, Sasse and potentially McConnell wing of the party seem to be going into this with their eyes open, an awareness that this could be the beginning of the end and unwilling to make the compromise being offered – outright fascism.
Once upon a time the Democratic Party turned its back on the racist, virulent southern democrats that had kept the party hostage to its votes, and they paid a huge price for a very long time. Some Republicans understand that this price must now be paid again, but this time on their side of the aisle. The deal they made with the devil has come due, just as it did for the Democrats, and the debt must be paid.
There is a great deal at stake in this impeachment, and surprisingly little of it has to do with Donald Trump. When the great Republican War of 2021 ramps up and leads to the mid-term elections in 2022, a great reckoning will have occurred. If the business Republicans are victorious, politics will have gone back to a very familiar dynamic, with the tired push-pull of the parties leading to ineffective legislative chess moves. If the populist wing gains the power of the party, a death struggle for the soul of the country will begin. It will be nothing less. Xenophobia and racism, white rights, will be pitted against Constitutional principles of equal rights for all people, and whoever controls the military will have the upper hand in that struggle and that advantage will most likely need to be pressed.
If the two parts of the party do not reconcile under one banner, if they don’t find one voice that they coalesce around, then the split will come, two parties will emerge and a great era of progressive rule will begin as they devour each other, each vying to be more ineffective and irrelevant than the other.
So who blinks? This is looking like a shoot out at the O-K Corall, and both sides of the Republican Party are seeing it as an existential moment, a potential extinction event. I have a very hard time imagining either side of this struggle backing down and accepting a supporting, influential role in a larger structure that has the final say. The few Republicans that are trying to barricade the doors see the populists as a threat not simply to the party but to the country itself, an end to an experiment in self government of, by and for all the people within its borders. They see the bigger picture, the larger threat that transcends party and are willing to die, at least politically, as the last line of defense for a threatened nation against a domestic enemy even greater than Democrats.
This is a bigger faction than the few Senators that have identified themselves and who will likely be insufficient to convict former President Trump. Many Republicans of note have left the party, embarrassed now to be associated with it while not necessarily claiming the Democratic Party as their home. Reagan’s speech writer, Peggy Noonan, left. George Will, the widely regarded Republican commentator no longer identifies himself as such. Former GOP Chairman Michael Steele left the party some time ago, and Steve Schmidt, campaign manager on the John McCain presidential run, not only left the party but was a founding member of the Lincoln Project, a group comprised exclusively of former GOP members and operatives that campaigned vigorously against Trump and continue to pressure the Republican Party to move back toward sanity. Not only are these folks former Republicans, they represented some of the power elite of the party that simply can’t be associated with what the populists want the party to become. This is not a tiny splinter group of malcontents. These are movers and shakers.
On the other side are the masses who see the business Republicans as RINOs, that they are a watered down, feminized version of what Republicans are supposed to be. They are the rugged individualists that get to do what they want and God help anyone that tries to get in the way. If a few people get hurt, well that’s just the price of progress, and progress means keeping things the way they used to be when America was great. Guns are not a threat to democracy, they are the answer. They are the equalizer when the arguments end, when persuasion is outside of the skill set. Facts, data and science are not welcome and are generally considered tricks used by elites to keep the little guy little. The only things keeping these folks from opulence are RINOs and Democrats, and they plan not to defeat them, but to eliminate them.
With that as a backdrop, the impeachment trial begins and Trump is probably the least important thing that will come of it.