By the end of today over 20 states will have voted in the 2020 Democratic primary. In 8 or so hours we may have a very good idea of where all of this is going.
But what if you had an election and nobody came?
How the coronavirus is going to effect turnout today is unknown, but it will be a factor from now on, through the primaries and right on through the general election. The deeper motivations of the electorate are about to be revealed as we see who has the internal imperative of their choice when faced with possible serious consequences from exercising it.
As other people become a greater and greater threat to the health and well being of the population, isolation will not only be the knee-jerk reaction to the threat but the recommedation of the experts. Social distancing is the filtered term to describe the phenomenon, but it is a clear obstacle to the historic turnouts that both sides feel they are dependent on to be victorious.
It creates a very strange and previously unseen dilemma for party leadership on both sides. Encouraging turnout potentially becomes a political liability as the risk of doing so increases. How do you ask supporters to put themselves in the line of fire of an illness that has lethal potential to the most dependable block of voters there is? Us old farts. What will the turnout be like in Washington, the country’s epicenter for deaths from Covid-19? Will the passion that defines the Bernie supporters overcome the risk? Will the apparent pragmatism that seems to be the bedrock of Biden’s support be enough to put the risks in the rearview?
Washington will go to Bernie, but what about the huge polling lead that Biden is enjoying in Michigan? That contest will be an interesting bellweather for the dedication of the supporters for both camps. Biden leads in Michigan by 15-25 points depending on the poll you choose, but either way it is a sizable cushion. Will that lead cause complacency in the face of the risks? Will the importance of a win for Bernie here overcome the health jitters?
At the very least, I think this dynamic is going to have an influence today and see Michigan tighten up considerably, if not lead to an outright surprise victory for Sanders, just like happened in 2016. The scary part of this is that half of Democratic voters will drag themselves to the polls in the general election, those that go at all, to vote for someone that they have no real passion for. They will be voting against, not for. Will that be a passionate enough motivation to challenge the microbiology that awaits them? Will the right wing show up or will we find they are more bark than bite in the face of an actual cost to their advocacy?
For a hint of an answer, tune in to a Trump fest. He has studied the techniques of authoritarian leaders and their manipulation of huge swaths of populations. He has absolutely no moral or ethical obstacles to employ such techniques, and fear and anger are some of the most impactful motivators known. The dependable frenzy whipped up at these rallies should give Demcrats pause. Can they meet the emotional crescendo with one of their own?
The only way to bring down a demi-god is to repaint them as a demon. The Democratic candidate is not particularly relevant at that point. Neither will have unified the party. The perception of each, encouraged by the other, is a pariah to the True Faith. Nose holding is what we on the left are dependent on in November, no matter who the candidate is, and we know there are candidate purists that will simply not cross over.
Trump supporters on the other hand have the frightening imperative of stopping an encroaching wave of cockroaches and rapists and murderers who want to abuse their daughters. They have to stop the incursion of Commies and to do that they will need lots of powerful weapons. They are still paying taxes. What’s up with that? Not only that, women aren’t doing what they’re told, are insisting on autonomy over their own bodies! Make America Great Again! They have a 12 mpg pickup truck or SUV and they want cheap gas, not wind turbines. Who needs cancer? Will they risk coronavirus to prevent wind cancer?
Trump is betting they will.
In my post “Coronation” I talk about the mastery of emotions that Biden displayed in his Dallas rally. In a day he turned the primaries on their head. Trump has been doing that to his faithful for years. They instantly respond to dogwhistles, the constant gaslighting, the bullying of the people they hate. He operates at the very basest level of human manipulation and he is a skilled con. Know what triggers the mark and play on that relentlessly. Stable he demonstrably is not, but a genius? Just maybe.
So Covid-19 is the wild card in the 2020 election. It will have the same kind of impact that a third-party candidate might have, only without directing the lost votes anywhere. They will simply disappear.
Who Covid takes votes from is yet to be determined. Dems as they fight for a motivation to take the risk, or perhaps Republicans as they finally confront the risks this incompetent child represents and has exacerbated. The epiphany.
So far this year, turnout has been massive. If it is tonight as well, I will see this as a very good sign that Democrats see this election as an existential imperative, as I do. Voting against may reveal itself as a far greater motivator than voting for.
And that’s what it will take. Unification behind an imperative.
Fuck you Covid-19.
I’m voting.