Biden breathing in S.C.

Joe Biden has coasted to a big 20+ point win in the palmetto state, beating Bernie Sanders handily and giving him CPR after a dismal showing in the first three opportunities in primary season.

This win was critical for the moderate standard bearer, as he has no money to invest in advertising or really any signiificant campaign activities leading up to Super Tuesday. While California, North Carolina, Virginia and Massachusetts are being pounded by Bloomberg ads, and Sanders ads, and Buttigieg ads, Joe Biden needs a big bounce. A very big bounce.

Seems like that would be forthcoming, but don’t tell that to another moderate hopeful, Mayor Pete. While winning two of the three first contests, and coming in second in the third, Buttigieg could not attain double digits in South Carolina while watching his main rival dominate the day. If he got a bounce, it bounced right over South Carolina.

With no money to enforce the momentary mega win, Biden must depend on the news-worthiness of his victory, because without cash it’s the only way he gets into America’s livingrooms and hearts.

Being broke was no surprise given the near complete lack of interest Joe inspired up north. But this is no surprise. Biden has always referred to South Carolina as his firewall, and he turned out to be right. With a 57% black electorate, Joe certainly had a chance. While no more hip to young black voters than Bloomberg, older black voters have particular warm and fuzzies toward old Joe. They know him, he’s been around forever and he was Barack’s second bananna, but more importantly they reliably vote. They are some of the most dedicated patriots in the country in the percentage of the over_40 African-American voters that exercise their franchise. Win them and they will turn out. And they did. Joe coasted with over 60% of the South Carolina African-American vote.

Where Buttigieg didn’t see a bump in his first trip down south, Biden may on Tuesday. South Carolina may be a bellweather for the black vote. While not monolithic by any means, there are common causes among people of color that white folks just don’t have to think about, and these things are certainly unifying in many different ways. Lacking a candidate of color, the next best thing is an ally, and Joe was Vice Ally. It essentially defined his job. He was first cheerleader and clearly close with the President, and if Barack could embrace him, that was pretty damn good.

This is not to denegrate the black vote. This is about trust, and Joe has tried to earn it. In the Obama administration he was a loyal and reliable backup with experience and international gravitas that filled in a few of the blanks in the first years of the new regime. If policy issues were clearly at odds with this electorate, the older black voter, none of the sweet ice tea that is Joe would matter. This is a relatively conservative voting block within the Democratic party. They have evaluated his vision and they share it and are pleased it is Joe that is carrying the torch. A win-win.

Tom Steyer earned a bit of respect tonight. His billions were not translating into votes and he had the temerity to admit it and drop out. He saw facts, evaluated them, made a sound decision. Hmm…..

Bernie takes a distant second. He was also second in the black vote, though a distant one. But that may be enough. Nationally it may be enough of a bite into Biden’s base to tip the tide in Bernie’s favor, though perhaps not enough to avoid a brokered convention. His bounce from Nevada, which was the first incontrovertible one, has had quantifiable influence on the Super Tuesday polls, opening up leads that seemed insurmountable, that is until tonight.

Warren has somehow crashed in the Bernie blitzkrieg. She is the other progressive option that is drowning in the overwhelming Sanders press. No room, no air. Super Tuesday is the last gasp.

Klobuchar has already breathed her last.

I vote Tuesday. Can’t wait to watch that night. We are living through one of the most impactful moments in our countries history.

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