To Those That Think It’s Over

Sanders supporters thought it was over a week ago. Some Biden supporters think Joe’s momentum is now unstoppable. Bloomberg was thought of as the Trump Slayer, and now he is seen as Trump Lite.

Wait a week. I have a dear friend, a Bernie or Bust-er, that salivates at the prospect of burning down the DNC to make the point that corporate interests are the real puppet-masters and the party in power is irrelevant. There is certainly truth to that, but what is being contested in the general election is even more basic and threatening. Defeating an evil man.

Will it happen? No one knows, and the reason is simple.

The electorate is basically an ignorant, emotional mass. Bristle if you like, but a strong emotional appeal is all that is necessary to move the vast majority of voters.

We talk about bubbles, but the reality is we are all in one. I hope you reject the self-characterization of being an easily swayed sheep, a pubescent that can be led with basic appeals to fears and wants. You are here and reading this because you are engaged in the conversation and parsing your thoughts and the information you gather.

And you are in a bubble.

You thnk that is how people engage with the world of politics, and it just isn’t true. Most don’t follow it. Most don’t care. Many don’t read at all. Most are unaware that the end of the world as we know it is far closer than they imagine.

My “Only Bernie” buddy loves to make statements about what the American people want, sweeping statements about the direction the populace would like to see the country go. Of course, Bernie represents those values and no other selection could possibly represent the will of the American People!

Poppycock. The American People as a group have no will. They don’t think about it that much. They are not government. Government happens to them and most don’t think it makes much difference. That’s the truth. Half of us don’t vote at all. The general consensus is everyone is bought and paid for and what difference does it make who’s stealing the money?

Why do I say this? Because it is brutally, painfully obvious.

Trump got elected because he played to widespread fears, hidden hatreds that would not have to be hidden any longer, a need to feel dominant and powerful and in control! It was an emotional gut punch that was an unstoppable force. No one was voting to gut the EPA or the Dept. of Education. No one was voting to accelerate climate change. They were voting to become a global bad-ass, voting to strut about like they just won a fight at recess. It was an emotional appeal to people to become the American gunslinger and to give a collective fuck you to the rest of the world. If he loses in the fall, the people that bother to vote will be saying they didn’t get what they hoped for. They were conned.

Mike Bloomberg rose as high as third in the primary race nationally and at one point was leading Florida. He was seen as the Trump Killer, the guy that could crush him dollar for dollar. When he rolled out, nothing else mattered and the appeal of a subway series between the New York titans of industry that was deemed to be the only kind of scrap that could oust the Bronze Bimbo left voters salivating and having their donations returned by Bloomberg since they were entirely unnecessary.

When Warren and the gang got through with him in the first debate, all that was left was a goldfish that had been removed from the aquarium, flopping and squirming, desperately looking for a way to preserve life. The emotions changed, the saviour transformed nearly instantly to a pariah.

Turn the page.

A week ago the general concensus was that Bernie Sanders would be the runaway last man standing. South Carolina muddied the waters, but the polling lead was holding. It seemed like all that was left was counting the margin of victory. The supporters were giddy with the prospect of a brave new world.

And then Joe had his rally.

As far as I can tell, my post “Coronation” on here is the one place that predicted Super Tuesday. Joe put together an event that was a flawless piece of political theatre, an all-time moment of genius in strategic campaigning. Read that post! Suddenly the public perception switched on a pin head. Bernie was no longer inevitable and Joe most certainly was!

These are ideological extremes of the party. If policy and erudite decision making among the electorate was important, if the great mass of people were really dedicated to the vision my Bernie buddy is convinced that they are, these absurd swings between opposites would be impossible.

What we are really watching is a competition between master manipulators of emotion. As a collective we are that useless as a collective decision-making body. If nothing else, 2016 proved that forever.

If you accept this premise, then the onus is on Sanders to find a way to emotionally engage the public in a revolution. I am reasonably certain that the public is not well enough educated to make that case rise to the level of their emotions where it must reside to win. It has risen to that state for my Bernie buddy, and it has to me, but will that be enough? Joe knows how to stump. He proved it beyond a shadow of a doubt in Dallas. Elizabeth Warren has dropped out and has refused to endorse anyone. That makes Sanders job even more difficult, when his closest ideological ally is not ready to join forces to save the working class. How does Bernie engage the blind emotion to win the day? He may win the debate. Many of us think he has. The truth is, that doesn’t really matter. Joe has made safety more emotional than rebirth. The MeToo allegations, the war votes, the willingness to sacrfice the safety net all will be background noise to the safety of getting back to shore after being pulled into a roiling sea by a rip-tide of Trumpism. Bernie’s argument is an intellectual one, which is pity to him. That path requires a conversation between equals, so that path is simply unavailable.

Elitism? Probably. I like smart people doing hard things. That’s why I like Bernie. But it doesn’t matter. Most people like people they, well, like! Many thought W. won because he was the guy you wanted to have a beer with and Gore was an egg-headed geek boy. George H.W. Bush was a proven leader, CIA head, VP, tough guy. Dukakis was an egg-headed geek boy, made even more egg-headed by an incongruous tank helmet. Trump was an unbridled whirlwind that would destroy everything in his way, a force of nature. Hillary was an entitled technocrat.

All of this has been accelerated by entering the new “Fact Free” age. Being an honest broker of a heart-felt and well conceived position is nearly a punchline now. “Alternative facts” entered the American lexicon, and for most people it didn’t get their attention at all. The WHO announces that the statistics on the Covid-19 virus show a death rate of 3.4%. Well, Trump’s hunch is it is under 1%. You now get to vote on facts, not learn them, or learn from them. The guy you like has all the facts, the other guy is lying. Much simpler and less time consuming. You don’t have to look up anything with this new model of research. It’s all done for you.

So no, it’s not over, but it could be close. Bernie needs to find a way to stir the heartstrings of a vacuous populous with an argument that doesn’t target heartstrings in the first place. Joe has done it for decades.

Good luck, Bernie. Methinks you’ll need it.